{ "schema": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers.schema.json", "generated": "2026-06-22", "author_profile": { "name": "Hans-Joachim Voth", "website": "https://www.jvoth.com", "ssrn": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=143391" }, "papers": [ { "title": "Testing and Correcting for Spatial Unit Roots in Regression Analysis", "authors": [ "Sascha O. Becker", "P. David Boll", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2026", "status": "forthcoming", "venue": "Stata Journal 26(2), 2026, p. 177-202", "doi": "10.1177/1536867X261449932", "abstract": "Spatial unit roots can lead to spurious regression results. We present a brief overview of the methods developed in Mueller and Watson (2024) to test for and correct for spatial unit roots. We also introduce a suite of Stata commands implementing these techniques.", "keywords": [ "spatial unit roots", "spatial econometrics", "Stata", "spurious regression" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/spatial-unit-roots.html", "pdf_url": "https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2025/twerp_1541-_becker.pdf", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "Github", "url": "https://github.com/pdavidboll/SPUR" } ] }, { "title": "Going Viral: Protests and Political Polarization in 1932 Hamburg", "authors": [ "Marcel Caesmann", "Bruno Caprettini", "Hans-Joachim Voth", "David Yanagizawa-Drott" ], "date": "2025", "status": "forthcoming", "venue": "Forthcoming, Journal of the European Economic Association", "abstract": "Political polarization is a growing concern in many countries; are mass protests merely a sign of increasing cleavages, or do they polarize societies? In this paper, we estimate the impact of Nazi marches in 1932 Hamburg, using granular data from 622 voting precincts during six elections. We show that propaganda can persuade, but it does so by raising the share of areas with very high Nazi support. Importantly, marches can also backfire and repel voters. Thus, protest marches lead to polarization.", "keywords": [ "protests", "political polarization", "propaganda", "Nazi marches", "Hamburg" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/going-viral.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/GoingViral_May2025.pdf", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3886846", "links": [ { "label": "SSRN", "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3886846" } ] }, { "title": "Fighting for Growth: Labor Scarcity and Technological Progress During the British Industrial Revolution", "authors": [ "Bruno Caprettini", "Alex Trew", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2026", "status": "forthcoming", "venue": "American Economic Review 116(10) (2026)", "abstract": "We collect new data and present new evidence on the effects of labor scarcity on the adoption of labor-saving technology in industrializing England. Where the British armed forces recruited heavily, more machines that economized on labor were adopted.", "keywords": [ "Industrial Revolution", "labor scarcity", "technological progress", "labor-saving technology", "Britain" ], "jel": [ "N13", "N43", "O14", "O31", "O47" ], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/fighting-for-growth.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Fighting_for_Growth.pdf", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6852722", "links": [ { "label": "SSRN", "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6852722" }, { "label": "CEPR wp", "url": "https://hub.cepr.org/published-discussion-paper/181527" }, { "label": "The Economist", "url": "http://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/01/17/a-flurry-of-new-studies-identifies-causes-of-the-industrial-revolution" } ] }, { "title": "Image(s)", "authors": [ "Hans-Joachim Voth", "David Yanagizawa-Drott" ], "date": "2024-07-02", "status": "conditionally accepted", "venue": "Conditionally accepted, Quarterly Journal of Economics", "abstract": "From clothes and hairstyles to fashion accessories, humans use a range of stylistic elements to express themselves. We present new methods to use images as a high-frequency, granular source for the analysis of cultural change. We systematically exploit data from more than 14 million high school yearbook pictures of graduating US seniors to analyze persistence and change in style.", "keywords": [ "culture", "images", "persistence", "cultural change", "similarity", "counter-culture", "hippies" ], "jel": [ "A12", "Z13", "N34" ], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/images.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/images_july_24.pdf", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6852661", "links": [ { "label": "SSRN", "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6852661" }, { "label": "Data", "url": "https://huggingbeard.github.io/images/" }, { "label": "AI-generated podcast", "url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Images%20Podcast.wav" } ] }, { "title": "Slavery and the British Industrial Revolution", "authors": [ "Stephan Heblich", "Stephen J. Redding", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2022", "status": "revision requested", "venue": "Revision requested, Review of Economic Studies", "abstract": "We provide theory and evidence on the contribution of slavery wealth to Britain's economic development prior to the abolition of slavery in 1833. We combine data on individual slaveholders from compensation records, an exogenous source of variation in slavery wealth from weather-induced shocks to mortality of the enslaved during the middle passage, and a quantitative spatial model.", "keywords": [ "slavery", "Industrial Revolution", "Britain", "slave wealth", "economic development" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/slavery-british-industrial-revolution.html", "pdf_url": "http://www.princeton.edu/~reddings/papers/SBIR_Paper.pdf", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4216236", "links": [ { "label": "SSRN", "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4216236" }, { "label": "NBER wp", "url": "https://www.jvoth.com/w30451.pdf" }, { "label": "VoxEU podcast", "url": "https://cepr.org/multimedia/slavery-and-industrial-revolution" }, { "label": "TradeTalks", "url": "https://tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/173-did-britains-slave-trade-help-drive-its-industrial-revolution/" } ] }, { "title": "Never Enough: Dynamic Status Incentives in Organizations", "authors": [ "Leonardo Bursztyn", "Ewan Rawcliffe", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2026-01", "status": "working paper", "venue": "NBER Working Paper No. w34707", "abstract": "We study the ability of a firm to elicit repeated effort from workers by creating a \"rat race\" of hierarchical status-based incentives. We examine performance using data on over 5,000 German air force pilots during World War II. Pilots' effort is hard to monitor; motivation is key to success. Fighter pilot performance increases markedly as they approach eligibility for a medal before falling off upon receipt of the award.", "keywords": [ "status incentives", "organizations", "rat race", "German air force", "World War II" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/never-enough.html", "pdf_url": "https://tinyurl.com/P1lots", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6093299", "links": [ { "label": "SSRN", "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6093299" }, { "label": "NBER wp", "url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w34707" }, { "label": "CEPR wp", "url": "https://cepr.org/publications/dp21121" }, { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/prize-kill-management-lessons-german-air-force-wwii" }, { "label": "Spectator", "url": "https://spectator.com/article/how-the-nazis-used-vanity-to-lure-pilots-to-their-deaths/" } ] }, { "title": "Transmitting Terror: Radio and Repression in Stalin's Soviet Union", "authors": [ "Sultan Mehmood", "Yaroslav Prokhorskoy", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2026-02-27", "status": "working paper", "venue": "Working paper", "abstract": "Mass media often persuades; it can also expand the machinery of repression. We study radio network expansion and political persecution in Stalin's Soviet Union, in the decades leading up to the 'Great Terror' of 1937-38. Greater radio coverage systematically intensified political repression: a one-standard-deviation increase in signal strength is associated with roughly 40 percent more arrests and a 20 percent rise in the execution share among those arrested, with effects that grew over time. For identification, we exploit newly digitized county-level panel data for 1920-1940 and variation in longwave radio signal strength driven by ground-conductivity differences along propagation paths. Additional repression was disproportionately misdirected. Post-Stalin rehabilitation records show that high-signal areas produced substantially more sentences later reversed. Within the security apparatus itself, stronger radio reception reduced recruitment into the NKVD. It also increased the probability that incumbent officers were purged or demoted, consistent with tighter monitoring and escalating internal risk. Mass communication was not only persuasive; it operated as an input into coercive state capacity by lowering the coordination and monitoring costs of repression.", "keywords": [ "propaganda", "state capacity", "repression", "radio", "Stalin", "Soviet Union" ], "jel": [ "N44", "D72", "P30" ], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/transmitting-terror.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Transmitting_Terror.pdf", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6852779", "links": [ { "label": "SSRN", "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6852779" } ] }, { "title": "Legacy on Deck: Skill Transmission and Occupational Dynasties in the Royal Navy", "authors": [ "Hans-Joachim Voth", "Guo Xu" ], "date": "2025-06-04", "status": "working paper", "venue": "Working paper", "abstract": "Do occupational dynasties reflect the intergenerational transmission of skills or nepotism? We use detailed data on the fighting record of the 18th century Royal Navy to show that sons of navy officers are markedly more successful than non-legacies, outperforming in terms of enemy captures by a third. This performance differential is not due to better equipment or more favorable assignments, and also holds for those whose patron has passed away. We provide evidence for positive selection as a channel through which the outperformance is sustained - sons of successful officers are more likely to join and be promoted in the navy. Consistent with vertical transmission, we use computer vision to analyze facial landmarks from over 1,000 portraits. We find that sons of service inherited traits predictive of greater success in naval warfare.", "keywords": [ "occupational dynasties", "skill transmission", "nepotism", "Royal Navy", "computer vision", "intergenerational mobility" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/legacy-on-deck.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Legacy.pdf", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6852782", "links": [ { "label": "SSRN", "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6852782" } ] }, { "title": "American Life Histories", "authors": [ "David Lagakos", "Stelios Michalopoulos", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2025-01", "status": "working paper", "venue": "NBER Working Paper No. w33373", "abstract": "What does it take to live a meaningful life? We exploit a unique corpus of over 1,300 life narratives of older Americans collected by a team of writers during the 1930s. We combine detailed human readings with large language models (LLMs) to extract systematic information on critical junctures, sources of meaning, and overall life satisfaction.", "keywords": [ "American Life Histories", "life narratives", "meaning", "well-being", "large language models" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/american-life-histories.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/alh.pdf", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5103580", "links": [ { "label": "SSRN", "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5103580" }, { "label": "NBER version", "url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w33373" }, { "label": "VoxTalk", "url": "https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GBVnGSQBp3rfNACMOoSnn" }, { "label": "Interview", "url": "https://t.co/ZLjMLfs8KL" }, { "label": "FT", "url": "https://timharford.com/2026/02/the-paradox-of-work/" } ] }, { "title": "From the Death of God to the Rise of Hitler", "authors": [ "Sascha O. Becker", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2023-10", "status": "working paper", "venue": "IZA Discussion Paper No. 16538; CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18543", "abstract": "Can weakened religiosity lead to the rise of totalitarianism? The Nazi Party set itself up as a political religion, emphasizing redemption, sacrifice, rituals, and communal spirit. This had a major impact on its success: Where the Christian Church only had shallow roots, the Nazis received higher electoral support and saw more party entry.", "keywords": [ "political religion", "Nazi Party", "religiosity", "voting", "Shallow Christianity" ], "jel": [ "N13", "N14", "N44", "P16", "Z12", "Z18" ], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/death-of-god-rise-hitler.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/SC2.pdf", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4612224", "links": [ { "label": "SSRN", "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4612224" }, { "label": "CEPR dp", "url": "https://cepr.org/publications/dp18543" } ] }, { "title": "Highway to Hitler", "authors": [ "Nico Voigtländer", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2026", "status": "published", "venue": "American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 18(1), pp. 120-159 (2026)", "abstract": "Can infrastructure investment win \"hearts and minds\"? We analyze a famous case in the early stages of dictatorship—the building of the motorway network in Nazi Germany. The Autobahn was one of the most important projects of the Hitler government. It was intended to reduce unemployment, and was widely used for propaganda purposes. We examine its role in increasing support for the NS regime by analyzing new data on motorway construction and the 1934 plebiscite, which gave Hitler great powers as head of state. Our results suggest that road building was highly effective, reducing opposition to the nascent Nazi regime.", "keywords": [ "infrastructure", "propaganda", "Nazi Germany", "Autobahn", "political support" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/highway-to-hitler.html", "pdf_url": "https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180816", "doi": "10.1257/app.20180816", "journal": "American Economic Journal: Applied Economics", "volume": "18", "issue": "1", "pages": "120-159", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "NBER wp", "url": "https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20150/w20150.pdf" }, { "label": "CEPR wp", "url": "https://cepr.org/publications/dp9983" }, { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/nazi-pork-and-popularity-how-hitlers-roads-won-german-hearts-and-minds" } ] }, { "title": "New Deal, New Patriots: How 1930s Government Spending Boosted Patriotism during World War II", "authors": [ "Bruno Caprettini", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2023", "status": "published", "venue": "Quarterly Journal of Economics 138(1), pp. 465-513 (2023)", "abstract": "We demonstrate an important complementarity between patriotism and public good provision. After 1933, the New Deal led to an unprecedented expansion of the US federal government's role. Those who benefited from social spending were markedly more patriotic during WW II: they bought more war bonds, volunteered more and, as soldiers, won more medals. This pattern was new -- WW I volunteering did not show the same geography of patriotism. We match military service records with the 1940 census to show that this pattern holds at the individual level.", "keywords": [ "New Deal", "patriotism", "public goods", "World War II", "government spending" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/new-deal-new-patriots.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/new_deal.pdf", "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjac028", "journal": "Quarterly Journal of Economics", "volume": "138", "issue": "1", "pages": "465-513", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/new-deal-new-patriots-how-roosevelts-welfare-programmes-made-america-great-again" }, { "label": "Data", "url": "https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/3A8CBI" } ] }, { "title": "Collective Remembrance and Private Choice: German-Greek Conflict and Consumer Behavior in Times of Crisis", "authors": [ "Vasiliki Fouka", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2023", "status": "published", "venue": "American Political Science Review 117(3), pp. 851-870 (2023)", "abstract": "How is collective memory formed and when does it impact behavior? During World War II, German troops occupying Greece carried out numerous massacres, often as reprisals for partisan attacks. During the recent Greek sovereign debt crisis, political conflict erupted between the German and Greek governments; German car sales in Greece declined. Reductions were greatest in areas affected by German reprisals.", "keywords": [ "collective memory", "consumer behavior", "Greece", "sovereign debt crisis", "World War II" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/collective-remembrance-german-greek.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/fv-reprisals.pdf", "doi": "10.1017/S0003055422001095", "journal": "American Political Science Review", "volume": "117", "issue": "3", "pages": "851-870", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://voxeu.org/article/massacre-memories-german-car-sales-and-ez-crisis-greece" }, { "label": "Data", "url": "https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/ZS9QEC" } ] }, { "title": "Financial Crises and Political Radicalization: How Failing Banks Paved Hitler's Path to Power", "authors": [ "Sebastian Doerr", "Stefan Gissler", "José-Luis Peydró", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2022", "status": "published", "venue": "Journal of Finance 77(6), pp. 3339-3372 (2022)", "abstract": "Do financial crises radicalize voters? We study Germany's 1931 banking crisis, collecting new data on bank branches and firm-bank connections. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in pre-crisis exposure to the bank at the center of the crisis, we show that Nazi votes surged in locations more affected by its failure.", "keywords": [ "financial crises", "banking", "political radicalization", "Weimar Germany", "Nazi Party" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/financial-crises-political-radicalization.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/JOF_final.pdf", "doi": "10.1111/jofi.13166", "journal": "Journal of Finance", "volume": "77", "issue": "6", "pages": "3339-3372", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://voxeu.org/article/financial-crisis-and-right-wing-extremism-germany-1931-33" }, { "label": "Data", "url": "https://www.jvoth.com/datasets/financial-crises/jofi13166-sup-0002-replicationcode.zip" } ] }, { "title": "Killer Incentives: Status Competition and Pilot Performance during World War II", "authors": [ "Philipp Ager", "Leonardo Bursztyn", "Lukas Leucht", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2022", "status": "published", "venue": "Review of Economic Studies 89(5), pp. 2257-2292 (2022)", "abstract": "Using newly-collected data on death rates and aerial victories of more than 5,000 German fighter pilots during World War II, we examine the effects of public recognition on performance and risk-taking. When a particular pilot is honored publicly, both the victory rate and the death rate of his former peers increase.", "keywords": [ "status competition", "incentives", "risk-taking", "fighter pilots", "World War II" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/killer-incentives.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Killer_Incentives.pdf", "doi": "10.1093/restud/rdab085", "journal": "Review of Economic Studies", "volume": "89", "issue": "5", "pages": "2257-2292", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://voxeu.org/article/how-status-competition-killed-german-wwii-fighter-pilots" }, { "label": "NBER Digest", "url": "https://www.nber.org/digest/mar17/w22992.shtml" }, { "label": "Data", "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/5518208" } ] }, { "title": "Sweet Diversity: Colonial Goods and the Welfare Gains from Global Trade after 1492", "authors": [ "Jonathan Hersh", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2022", "status": "published", "venue": "Explorations in Economic History 86, pp. 101468 (2022)", "abstract": "When did overseas trade start to matter for living standards? Traditional real-wage indices suggest that living standards in Europe stagnated before 1800. In this paper, we argue that welfare may have actually risen substantially, but surreptitiously, because of an influx of new goods.", "keywords": [ "trade", "welfare gains", "colonial goods", "living standards", "new goods" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/sweet-diversity.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Sweet_Diversity.pdf", "doi": "10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101468", "journal": "Explorations in Economic History", "volume": "86", "issue": null, "pages": "101468", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://voxeu.org/article/new-goods-malthusian-world-welfare-gains-coffee-tea-and-sugar" }, { "label": "Data", "url": "https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/172801/version/V1/view" } ] }, { "title": "The Long-Run Effects of Religious Persecution: Evidence from the Spanish Inquisition", "authors": [ "Mauricio Drelichman", "Jordi Vidal-Robert", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2021", "status": "published", "venue": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(33) (2021)", "abstract": "Religious persecution is common in many countries around the globe. There is little evidence on its long-term effects. We collect new data from all across Spain, using information from over 67,000 trials held by the Spanish Inquisition between 1480 and 1820.", "keywords": [ "religious persecution", "Spanish Inquisition", "long-run effects", "trust", "economic development" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/religious-persecution-spanish-inquisition.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/latest.pdf", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2022881118", "journal": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", "volume": "118", "issue": "33", "pages": null, "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "Data", "url": "https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/143781/version/V1/view" } ] }, { "title": "Rage Against the Machines: Labor-Saving Technology and Unrest in Industrializing England", "authors": [ "Bruno Caprettini", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2020", "status": "published", "venue": "American Economic Review: Insights 2(3), pp. 305-320 (2020)", "abstract": "Can new technology cause social instability and unrest? We examine the Captain Swing riots in 1830s England. Newly-collected data on threshing machine adoption shows that new technology was associated with both higher unemployment and more riots.", "keywords": [ "technology", "unrest", "Captain Swing", "Industrial Revolution", "labor-saving" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/rage-against-the-machines.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Rage_Against_the_Machines.pdf", "doi": "10.1257/aeri.20190385", "journal": "American Economic Review: Insights", "volume": "2", "issue": "3", "pages": "305-320", "ssrn_url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2905046", "links": [ { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://voxeu.org/article/rage-against-machines-new-technology-and-violent-unrest" }, { "label": "AEA Research Highlight", "url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/research/thresher-machine-england-civil-revolt" }, { "label": "Data", "url": "https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/117044/version/V1/view" } ] }, { "title": "Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party", "authors": [ "Shanker Satyanath", "Nico Voigtländer", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2017", "status": "published", "venue": "Journal of Political Economy 125(2), pp. 478-526 (2017)", "abstract": "Social capital is often associated with desirable political and economic outcomes. This paper contributes to a growing literature on its \"dark side\". We examine the role of social capital in the downfall of democracy in interwar Germany.", "keywords": [ "social capital", "fascism", "Nazi Party", "Weimar Germany", "civil society" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/bowling-for-fascism.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Bowling_for_Fascism.pdf", "doi": "10.1086/690949", "journal": "Journal of Political Economy", "volume": "125", "issue": "2", "pages": "478-526", "ssrn_url": "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2284907", "links": [ { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://voxeu.org/article/bowling-adolf-how-social-capital-helped-destroy-germany-s-first-democracy" }, { "label": "Data", "url": "https://www.jvoth.com/datasets/bowling-for-fascism/2014294data.zip" } ] }, { "title": "Leverage and Beliefs: Personal Experience and Risk-Taking in Margin Lending", "authors": [ "Peter Koudijs", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2016", "status": "published", "venue": "American Economic Review 106(11), pp. 3367-3400 (2016)", "abstract": "What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Using unique archival data on collateralized lending, we show that personal experience can affect individual risk-taking and aggregate leverage.", "keywords": [ "leverage", "beliefs", "risk-taking", "margin lending", "financial history" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/leverage-and-beliefs.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Leverage_and_Beliefs.pdf", "doi": "10.1257/aer.20140259", "journal": "American Economic Review", "volume": "106", "issue": "11", "pages": "3367-3400", "ssrn_url": "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2406493", "links": [ { "label": "Data", "url": "https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/112978/version/V1/view" } ] }, { "title": "Nazi Indoctrination and Anti-Semitic Beliefs in Germany", "authors": [ "Nico Voigtländer", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2015", "status": "published", "venue": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(26), pp. 7931-7936 (2015)", "abstract": "Attempts at modifying public opinions, attitudes, and beliefs range from advertising and schooling to \"brainwashing\". Their effectiveness is highly controversial. In this paper, we use survey data to show that Nazi indoctrination was highly effective.", "keywords": [ "indoctrination", "anti-Semitism", "schooling", "persistence", "Nazi Germany" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/taught-to-hate.html", "pdf_url": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1414822112", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.1414822112", "journal": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", "volume": "112", "issue": "26", "pages": "7931-7936", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "Paper", "url": "http://tinyurl.com/q2ogyn2" } ] }, { "title": "State Capacity and Military Conflict", "authors": [ "Nicola Gennaioli", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2015", "status": "published", "venue": "Review of Economic Studies 82(4), pp. 1409-1448 (2015)", "abstract": "In 1500, Europe was composed of hundreds of statelets and principalities. By 1800, Europe had consolidated into a handful of powerful, centralized nation states. We build a model that simultaneously explains both the emergence of capable states and growing divergence between European powers.", "keywords": [ "state capacity", "military conflict", "fiscal capacity", "Europe", "political economy" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/state-capacity-military-conflict.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/State_Capacity.pdf", "doi": "10.1093/restud/rdv019", "journal": "Review of Economic Studies", "volume": "82", "issue": "4", "pages": "1409-1448", "ssrn_url": "http://ssrn.com/abstract=1961619", "links": [] }, { "title": "Numeracy and the Impact of High Food Prices in Industrializing Britain, 1780-1850", "authors": [ "Jörg Baten", "Dorothee Crayen", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2014", "status": "published", "venue": "Review of Economics and Statistics 96(3), pp. 418-430 (2014)", "abstract": "Using census-based data on the ability to recall one's age, we show that low levels of nutrition impaired numeracy in industrializing England, 1780 to 1850.", "keywords": [ "numeracy", "human capital", "food prices", "nutrition", "Industrial Revolution" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/numeracy-food-prices.html", "pdf_url": "https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00403", "doi": "10.1162/REST_a_00403", "journal": "Review of Economics and Statistics", "volume": "96", "issue": "3", "pages": "418-430", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "Data", "url": "https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/26906" } ] }, { "title": "How the West \"Invented\" Fertility Restriction", "authors": [ "Nico Voigtländer", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2013", "status": "published", "venue": "American Economic Review 103(6), pp. 2227-2264 (2013)", "abstract": "We analyze the rise of the first socio-economic institution in history that limited fertility long before the Demographic Transition. The \"European Marriage Pattern\" raised the marriage age of women and ensured that many remained celibate.", "keywords": [ "fertility", "European Marriage Pattern", "Malthusian economy", "demography", "long-run growth" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/how-the-west-invented-fertility-restriction.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/How_the_West.pdf", "doi": "10.1257/aer.103.6.2227", "journal": "American Economic Review", "volume": "103", "issue": "6", "pages": "2227-2264", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "Data", "url": "https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/112673/version/V1/view" } ] }, { "title": "The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War, and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe", "authors": [ "Nico Voigtländer", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2013", "status": "published", "venue": "Review of Economic Studies 80(2), pp. 774-811 (2013)", "abstract": "How did Europe escape the Iron Law of Wages? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes and urbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700.", "keywords": [ "Malthusian economy", "plague", "urbanization", "Black Death", "long-run growth" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/three-horsemen-of-riches.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Three_Horsemen.pdf", "doi": "10.1093/restud/rds034", "journal": "Review of Economic Studies", "volume": "80", "issue": "2", "pages": "774-811", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "Data", "url": "http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty_pages/nico.v/Research/Horsemen_Bairoch_Data.xlsx" } ] }, { "title": "Persecution Perpetuated: The Medieval Origins of Anti-Semitic Violence in Nazi Germany", "authors": [ "Nico Voigtländer", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2012", "status": "published", "venue": "Quarterly Journal of Economics 127(3), pp. 1339-1392 (2012)", "abstract": "How persistent are cultural traits? Using data on anti-Semitism in Germany, we find local continuity over 600 years. Jews were often blamed when the Black Death killed at least a third of Europe's population during 1348-50.", "keywords": [ "anti-Semitism", "cultural persistence", "Black Death", "Nazi Germany", "pogroms" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/persecution-perpetuated.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Persecution_Perpetuated.pdf", "doi": "10.1093/qje/qjs019", "journal": "Quarterly Journal of Economics", "volume": "127", "issue": "3", "pages": "1339-1392", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "VoxEU", "url": "https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/geography-hate-how-anti-semitism-interwar-germany-was-influenced-medieval-mass-murder" }, { "label": "Data", "url": "http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty_pages/nico.v/Research/Persecution_Perpetuated_QJE_Replicate.zip" } ] }, { "title": "Lending to the Borrower from Hell: Debt and Default in the Age of Philip II, 1556-1598", "authors": [ "Mauricio Drelichman", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2011", "status": "published", "venue": "Economic Journal 121, pp. 1205-1227 (2011)", "abstract": "What sustained borrowing without third-party enforcement in the early days of sovereign lending? Philip II of Spain accumulated towering debts while stopping all payments to his lenders four times. How could the sovereign borrow much and default often?", "keywords": [ "sovereign debt", "default", "Philip II", "Habsburg Spain", "financial history" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/lending-to-the-borrower-from-hell.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Borrower_from_Hell.pdf", "doi": "10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02442.x", "journal": "Economic Journal", "volume": "121", "issue": null, "pages": "1205-1227", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [] }, { "title": "Serial Defaults, Serial Profits: Returns to Sovereign Lending in Habsburg Spain, 1566-1600", "authors": [ "Mauricio Drelichman", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2011", "status": "published", "venue": "Explorations in Economic History 48(1), pp. 1-19 (2011)", "abstract": "Philip II of Spain accumulated debts equivalent to 60% of GDP. He also defaulted four times on his short-term loans. Contrary to a common view, we show that lending to the king was profitable even under worst-case scenario assumptions.", "keywords": [ "sovereign debt", "default", "returns", "Habsburg Spain", "financial history" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/serial-defaults-serial-profits.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Serial_Defaults.pdf", "doi": "10.1016/j.eeh.2010.08.002", "journal": "Explorations in Economic History", "volume": "48", "issue": "1", "pages": "1-19", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [] }, { "title": "Betting on Hitler: The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany", "authors": [ "Thomas Ferguson", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2008", "status": "published", "venue": "Quarterly Journal of Economics 123(1), pp. 101-137 (2008)", "abstract": "This paper examines the value of connections between German industry and the Nazi movement in early 1933. Firms supporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high returns, outperforming unconnected ones by 5% to 8%.", "keywords": [ "political connections", "stock returns", "Nazi Germany", "firm value", "political economy" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/betting-on-hitler.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Betting_on_Hitler.pdf", "doi": "10.1162/qjec.2008.123.1.101", "journal": "Quarterly Journal of Economics", "volume": "123", "issue": "1", "pages": "101-137", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [] }, { "title": "Interest Rate Restrictions in a Natural Experiment: Loan Allocation and the Change in the Usury Laws in 1714", "authors": [ "Peter Temin", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2008", "status": "published", "venue": "Economic Journal 118, pp. 743-758 (2008)", "abstract": "This article studies the effects of interest rate restrictions on loan allocation. The British government tightened the usury laws in 1714, reducing the maximum permissible interest rate from 6% to 5%.", "keywords": [ "usury laws", "interest rates", "credit rationing", "natural experiment", "financial history" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/interest-rate-restrictions-usury-1714.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Usury_1714.pdf", "doi": "10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02140.x", "journal": "Economic Journal", "volume": "118", "issue": null, "pages": "743-758", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [] }, { "title": "Why England? Demographic Factors, Structural Change and Physical Capital Accumulation during the Industrial Revolution", "authors": [ "Nico Voigtländer", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2006", "status": "published", "venue": "Journal of Economic Growth 11, pp. 319-361 (2006)", "abstract": "Why did England industrialize first? And why was Europe ahead of the rest of the world? We present a probabilistic two-sector model where the initial escape from Malthusian constraints depends on the demographic regime.", "keywords": [ "Industrial Revolution", "demography", "capital accumulation", "England", "long-run growth" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/why-england.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Why_England.pdf", "doi": "10.1007/s10887-006-9007-6", "journal": "Journal of Economic Growth", "volume": "11", "issue": null, "pages": "319-361", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "Code", "url": "http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty_pages/nico.v/Research/WhyEngland_Simulation.zip" } ] }, { "title": "Riding the South Sea Bubble", "authors": [ "Peter Temin", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2004", "status": "published", "venue": "American Economic Review 94(5), pp. 1654-1668 (2004)", "abstract": "This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock: it was profitable to \"ride the bubble.\"", "keywords": [ "South Sea Bubble", "asset bubbles", "rational investors", "financial history", "limits to arbitrage" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/riding-the-south-sea-bubble.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/South_Sea_Bubble.pdf", "doi": "10.1257/0002828043052268", "journal": "American Economic Review", "volume": "94", "issue": "5", "pages": "1654-1668", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [ { "label": "Data", "url": "https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/116029/version/V1/view" } ] }, { "title": "With a Bang, Not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's \"Stock Market Bubble\" in 1927 and the Slide into Depression", "authors": [ "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2003", "status": "published", "venue": "Journal of Economic History 63(1), pp. 65-99 (2003)", "abstract": "In May 1927, the German central bank intervened indirectly to reduce lending to equity investors. The crash that followed ended the only stock market boom during Germany's relative stabilization 1924-28.", "keywords": [ "stock market bubble", "central banking", "Weimar Germany", "Great Depression", "financial history" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/with-a-bang-not-a-whimper.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/With_a_Bang.pdf", "doi": "10.1017/S0022050703001736", "journal": "Journal of Economic History", "volume": "63", "issue": "1", "pages": "65-99", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [] }, { "title": "Factor Prices and Productivity Growth during the British Industrial Revolution", "authors": [ "Pol Antràs", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "2003", "status": "published", "venue": "Explorations in Economic History 40(1), pp. 52-77 (2003)", "abstract": "This paper presents new estimates of total factor productivity growth in Britain for the period 1770-1860. We use the dual technique and argue that the estimates we derive from factor prices are of similar quality to quantity-based calculations.", "keywords": [ "productivity growth", "total factor productivity", "Industrial Revolution", "Britain", "dual technique" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/factor-prices-productivity-growth.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Factor_Prices.pdf", "doi": "10.1016/S0014-4983(02)00024-4", "journal": "Explorations in Economic History", "volume": "40", "issue": "1", "pages": "52-77", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [] }, { "title": "Human Capital, Equipment Investment, and Industrialization", "authors": [ "Jonathan Temple", "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "1998", "status": "published", "venue": "European Economic Review 42, pp. 1343-1362 (1998)", "abstract": "This paper constructs simple models in which industrialization is driven by human capital accumulation. Industrialization can explain the robust correlation between equipment investment and growth in developing countries.", "keywords": [ "human capital", "equipment investment", "industrialization", "growth", "development" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/human-capital-equipment-investment.html", "pdf_url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00082-2", "doi": "10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00082-2", "journal": "European Economic Review", "volume": "42", "issue": null, "pages": "1343-1362", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [] }, { "title": "Time and Work in Eighteenth-Century London", "authors": [ "Hans-Joachim Voth" ], "date": "1998", "status": "published", "venue": "Journal of Economic History 58(1), pp. 29-58 (1998)", "abstract": "Witnesses' accounts are used to analyze changes in working hours between 1750 and 1800. The number of annual working hours changed rapidly between the middle and the end of the eighteenth century.", "keywords": [ "working hours", "industrious revolution", "labor", "eighteenth century", "London" ], "jel": [], "canonical_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/papers/time-and-work-18th-century-london.html", "pdf_url": "https://www.jvoth.com/Time_and_Work_JEH.pdf", "doi": "10.1017/S0022050700019872", "journal": "Journal of Economic History", "volume": "58", "issue": "1", "pages": "29-58", "ssrn_url": null, "links": [] } ] }