Latest Papers
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Spatial Unit Roots in Regressions: A Practitioner's Guide and Stata Package
Spatial unit roots can lead to spurious regression results. We present a brief overview of the methods developed in Mueller and Watson (2024) to test for and correct for spatial unit roots. We also introduce a suite of Stata commands implementing these techniques.
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Going Viral: Protests and Political Polarization in 1932 Hamburg
Political polarization is a growing concern in many countries; are mass protests merely a sign of increasing cleavages, or do they polarize societies? In this paper, we estimate the impact of Nazi marches in 1932 Hamburg, using granular data from 622 voting precincts during six elections. We show that propaganda can persuade, but it does so by raising the share of areas with very high Nazi support. Importantly, marches can also backfire and repel voters. Thus, protest marches lead to polarization.
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We collect new data and present new evidence on the effects of labor scarcity on the adoption of labor-saving technology in industrializing England. Where the British armed forces recruited heavily, more machines that economized on labor were adopted.
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From clothes and hairstyles to fashion accessories, humans use a range of stylistic elements to express themselves. We present new methods to use images as a high-frequency, granular source for the analysis of cultural change. We systematically exploit data from more than 14 million high school yearbook pictures of graduating US seniors to analyze persistence and change in style.
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Slavery and the British Industrial Revolution
Did overseas slave-holding by Britons accelerate the Industrial Revolution? We provide theory and evidence on the contribution of slave wealth to Britain's growth prior to 1835. We compare areas of Britain with high and low exposure to the colonial plantation economy, using granular data on wealth from compensation records.
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Never Enough: Dynamic Status Incentives in Organizations
We study the ability of a firm to elicit repeated effort from workers by creating a "rat race" of hierarchical status-based incentives. We examine performance using data on over 5,000 German air force pilots during World War II. Pilots' effort is hard to monitor; motivation is key to success. Fighter pilot performance increases markedly as they approach eligibility for a medal before falling off upon receipt of the award.
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Transmitting Terror: Radio and Repression in Stalin's Soviet Union
Mass media often persuades; it can also expand the machinery of repression. We study radio network expansion and political persecution in Stalin's Soviet Union, in the decades leading up to the 'Great Terror' of 1937-38. Greater radio coverage systematically intensified political repression.
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Legacy on Deck: Skill Transmission and Occupational Dynasties in the Royal Navy
Do occupational dynasties reflect the intergenerational transmission of skills or nepotism? We use detailed data on the fighting record of the 18th century Royal Navy to show that sons of navy officers are markedly more successful than non-legacies, outperforming in terms of enemy captures by a third.
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What does it take to live a meaningful life? We exploit a unique corpus of over 1,300 life narratives of older Americans collected by a team of writers during the 1930s. We combine detailed human readings with large language models (LLMs) to extract systematic information on critical junctures, sources of meaning, and overall life satisfaction.
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From the 'Death of God' to the Rise of Hitler
Can weakened religiosity lead to the rise of totalitarianism? The Nazi Party set itself up as a political religion, emphasizing redemption, sacrifice, rituals, and communal spirit. This had a major impact on its success: Where the Christian Church only had shallow roots, the Nazis received higher electoral support and saw more party entry.