Going Viral: Protests and Political Polarization in 1932 Hamburg

Abstract

Political polarization is a growing concern in many countries; are mass protests merely a sign of increasing cleavages, or do they polarize societies? In this paper, we estimate the impact of Nazi marches in 1932 Hamburg, using granular data from 622 voting precincts during six elections. We show that propaganda can persuade, but it does so by raising the share of areas with very high Nazi support. Importantly, marches can also backfire and repel voters. Thus, protest marches lead to polarization.